If you’re gearing up for the quickly approaching 2018 NCAA men’s hoops tournament and you’re looking for college basketball March Madness betting trends that could help you consistently cash in, then you’re in luck!
March Madness Betting Trends
March Madness Teams Play D!
If your favorite March madness team plays great offense, but so-so defense or vice versa, it’s not the worst thing to ever happen. However, you should know that teams that excel at both ends of the floor generally win the national championship. Thirteen of the past 14 national champions finished in the top 20 in both, offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. The only school that didn’t fit this description was the 2014 UConn squad that finished 39th in defensive efficiency that year. Four teams fit the championship-winning criteria this year and I have two of them in my Final Four ironically (Villanova, Wichita State, Gonzaga, and Kentucky).
Bet On The Coach
While basketball fans and betting enthusiasts know that coaching matters a whole lot more at the college level than it does in the pros. It’s good to know that coaches that have been to the Final Four before have won an amazing 15 of the last 17 championships and 24 of the last 29 overall.
Look At Past Losses
It’s simple…if a team loses its opening game in its conference championship tournament, then they’re apparently not winning the national championship. No team has ever won the NCAA title after losing its opening-round conference tournament game. That means, goodbye to Kansas which lost to TCU in the opening game of the Big 12 Tournament. Then again, I’ve already expressed that the Jayhawks weren’t making the Final Four, so there’s that!
Bet The Top Seed
A No. 1 seed has won seven of the last 10 national championships and 12 of the last 18. Sure, they may not be offering a ton of value as a favorite in almost every game, but you should know that at least one No. 1 has made the Final Four every year except 1980, 2006 and 2011.
Bet The Low Seed
Don’t be afraid to back a lower seeded team to rise up and smack the hell out of a bunch of unsuspecting higher seeds on the way to a Final Four appearance – it happens more than you think. Seven teams seeded 7 or lower have made the Final Four since 2011. Plus, those lower seeds are often offering a huge financial return as underdogs. Seventy-six percents of all March Madness upsets are pulled off by 10, 11 or 12 seeds. At least two double-digit seeds have reached the Sweet 16 in 16 of the past 20 years.
Bet The First Four
If you’re looking for bankroll-boosting value, then you better find one of those value-packed First Four underdogs! A First Four team has reached the round of 32 in all six years of the format and at least one been to the Sweet 16 in three of the past six years.
12 is a Magic Number
Remember the number 12 this March Madness season. A 12th seed has taken out a No. 5 seed in 25 of the past 28 years. In the last five years, No. 12 seeds have won half of the 20 matchups that have taken place against No. 5 seeds.
Never Bet on a No. 16 seed
No. 16 seeds are 0-128 all-time against No. 1s. Don’t get too cute with your betting picks, thinking ‘this could be the year’ it happens!
Go ahead and pick a smaller conference team to win it all if you like.
The ACC has produced more Sweet 16 teams in the past four seasons than any other conference (14). Since 2013: the Big Ten has produced a dozen Sweet 16 teams, the Pac-12 (9), Big 12 (8) and SEC (6). Believe it or not, the Big Ten hasn’t won the national title since 2000. The Pac-12 hasn’t won a title since 1997.
Bet Blue Chip Programs!
There’s a reason why John Calipari and Coach K teams are perennially powerful. Top-tier coaching recruits talent. Talent wins championships. A whopping 35 of the last 37 national champions had at least one McDonald’s high school All-American on their roster. Only 2002 Maryland and 2014 Connecticut didn’t have one.