3 Mistakes 1st Time Kentucky Derby Bettors Make

3 Mistakes 1st Time Kentucky Derby Bettors Make

Are you betting on the Kentucky Derby for the first time? Don’t know a quinella from an exacta? Keep reading for three mistakes first time Kentucky Derby bettors make and how to avoid them.

3 Mistakes 1st Time Kentucky Derby Bettors Make

1. Overthinking the Kentucky Derby

This is easily the biggest mistake all first time Kentucky Derby bettors make. Because there’s so much attention paid to human connections, the horses, and the name of the race, first time Derby bettors forget that at the end of the day, the Kentucky Derby is a horse race.

The same things that determine the winner of a $5,000 claimer at Turf Paradise are the things that determine who wins the Kentucky Derby: speed, pace, and trip.

2. Speed trap

First time Kentucky Derby bettors tend to look at speed figures and believe they’re the end all and be all on the first Saturday in May. They’re important, but pedigree and trip trumps speed every time. Trip is what sort of trip the Derby horse is likely to get. The easier the trip, the horse mustn’t run wide, the better the chances for the horse to win.

That’s true not just in the Kentucky Derby. It’s true for any horse race. Pedigree means a lot in the Derby because horses are often bred for either speed or distance. Distance horses will love running 1 ¼ miles. Speed horses might not. Again, speed is important, but first time Derby bettors often place too much importance on speed and speed ratings.

3. Placing too much emphasis on the 1 ¼ mile distance

Like speed, first time Kentucky Derby bettors place too much emphasis on the Derby distance. 1 ¼ miles, the “classic” distance in American racing, is foreign to every horse that enters because almost no three-year-old runs 1 ¼ miles until they run in the Kentucky Derby or Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Most first time Derby bettors believe that the longer the distance, the better it is for closers. On one hand, that can be correct. Orb, Giacomo, and Mine That Bird all won the Derby from the clouds. However, all three closed into incredibly fast paces. The front runners were blazing up front in all three of those Derbies.

The past five Derby winners have been front running pressers. California Chrome sat less than 2 lengths behind Uncle Sigh and Chitu in the 2014 Derby, American Phaorah sat around 2 to 3 lengths behind Dortmund and Firing Line in 2015 while in 2016, Nyquist was almost on the lead. Always Dreaming was practically on the lead in 2017. Same for Justify in 2018.

Pace is what makes the race, not speed, and although distance means something, it doesn’t matter if the horse on a slow pace is the best horse in the race. Those same things that apply to every race, every day, all over the world, also applies to the Kentucky Derby.

First time Kentucky Derby bettors should forget so much about speed and distance and think in terms of pace. Don’t overthink the Kentucky Derby it’s still a horse race. The horses that get the best trips, that haven’t run into any trouble, have won the past five Derbies. Those horses have also run close to fast, but not superfast, paces. If first time Derby bettors handicap the Run for the Roses like it’s any other horse race think in terms of trip and pace, they might cash.

Updated Kentucky Derby Odds after favorite Omaha Beach scratched

Early Kentucky Derby Betting Odds

The 2019 Kentucky Derby is quickly approaching. The first Triple Crown race is set to go down on Saturday, May 4th with a post time of 6:50 PM ET. Click here for live Kentucky Derby odds.

Early Kentucky Derby Betting Odds, Betting Favorite, Value Bet & Long Shot Pick

2019 Kentucky Derby Odds

  • Omaha Beach +500
  • Roadster/Game Winner +600
  • Improbable +800
  • Maximum Security +1000
  • Tacitus +1200
  • Vekoma +1300
  • Code of Honor +1600
  • Instagrand +2000
  • Cutting Humor/By My Standards/Tax/Win Win Win +2500
  • Haikal +2800
  • Plus Que Parfait +3000
  • Spinoff /War of Will/Long Range Toddy +3300
  • Anothertwistafate/Country House +4500
  • Bourbon War/Signalman +6000
  • Sueno +6500

The Kentucky Derby Odds-On Betting Favorite: Omaha Beach +500

Since breaking his maiden at 7 furlongs over a sloppy Santa Anita racetrack in February, this War Front sired colt has blossomed. Omaha Beach held off the Bob Baffert trained Game Winner to win the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in March. He won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby by holding off another Baffert trained horse, Improbable.

Omaha Beach has excellent cruising speed which makes him a legit favorite to win the Run for the Roses. There are a few knocks, though. Trainer Richard Mandella is a hall of famer, but he’s never saddled a Derby winner. Not only that, Omaha Beach could bounce after running the two fastest races of his life in his last two. Some things to like and some things to dislike makes him an underlay at +500.

The Kentucky Derby Value Bet: Maximum Security +1000

The Florida Derby winner is undefeated in 4 starts. Most who believe he doesn’t have a chance will point to how he ran in a $16,000 maiden claimer back in December. Trainer Jason Servis didn’t know what he had. In the mornings, Maximum Security hadn’t been training well at all. So, Servis decided to see if anybody might take Maximum Security off his hands.

The colt seemed to figure things out during the maiden win, though. He took the lead and then shook free for a close to 10 length score. In his second race, an option claimer at $50,000, he tracked the speed before taking over and running off for a 6 ½ length win. He won his next race, another optional claimer at $50,000, by 16 lengths.

Maximum Security isn’t a one-dimensional speedball. He relaxes beautifully behind horses before getting his cue to go. The Servis trainer is the real deal.

Kentucky Derby Long Shot Pick: Spinoff +3000

Spinoff allowed By My Standards to run up the rail in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and beat him, but there’s a lot to like about the Todd Pletcher trainee. The La Derby was only his fourth-lifetime race. He’s also worked a bullet since and should have learned a lot after the loss.

Pletcher’s won the Derby twice while Spinoff has enough speed to be in contention early. He also showed a closing kick in the Louisiana Derby. This +3000 longshot will have a say in the outcome.

Early Odds To Win The 2019 Kentucky Derby

Early Odds To Win The 2019 Kentucky Derby

The 2019 Kentucky Derby is about a month away, but 5Dimes’ horse racking oddsmakers have released the early odds to win the first race of the 2019 Triple Crown.

Will there be a Triple Crown Winner in 2019?

  • Yes +425
  • No -550

Odds To Win The 2019 Kentucky Derby

  • Game Winner +500
  • Improbable +650
  • Much Better +1000
  • Maximum Security +1200
  • Hidden Scroll +1200
  • Sparky Ville +1500
  • Bulletin +1500
  • Omaha Beach +1600
  • Hog Creek Hustle +1600
  • Code of Honor +1600
  • Roadster +1900
  • Lutsky +2000
  • Haikal +2000
  • Anothertwistafate +2000
  • My Sixth Sense +2000
  • Bourbon War +2000
  • Country House +2000
  • Cutting Humor +2000
  • Instagrand +2200
  • Win Win Win +2500
  • Harvey Wallbanger +2500
  • Mucho Gusto +2500
  • Long Range Toddy +2800
  • Nolo Contesto +3000
  • Everfast +3000
  • Maximus Mischief +3000
  • Tale of the Union +3000
  • Dessman +3000
  • War of Will +3000
  • Magic On Tap +3000
  • Endorsed +3300
  • Alwaysmining +3300
  • By My Standards +3300
  • Tax +3300
  • Gunmetal Gray +3300
  • Galilean +3300
  • Frosted Ice +3300
  • Spinoff +3300
  • Tacitus +3300
  • Plus Que Parfait +3300
  • Mucho +3500
  • Seismic Jolt +3500
  • Shared Legacy +3500
  • Vekoma +3500
  • Mind Control +4000
  • Dream Maker +4000
  • Global Campaign +4000
  • Super Steed +4000
  • Uncle Benny +4000
  • Royal Marine +4000
  • Coliseum +4000
  • Complexity +4000
  • Current +4000
  • Dunph +4000
  • Hustle Up +4000
  • Borracho +4000
  • Well Defined +4500
  • Our Braintrust +4500
  • Sir Winston +4500
  • Gun It +5000
  • Extra Hope +5000
  • Cruel Intention +5000
  • Tobacco Road +5000
  • Signalman +5000
  • Outshine +5000
  • Big Scott Daddy +5000
  • Lucky Lee +5000
  • Bankit +5000
  • Aurelius Maximus +5000
  • Garter And Tie +5000
  • Limonite +5000
  • Mason Dixon +5000
  • Mr Ankeny +5000
  • Dashing Dan +6000
  • Moonster +6000
  • Standard Deviation +6000
  • Not That Brady +6000
  • Mihos +6000
  • Honcho +6000
  • Knicks Go +6000
  • Lebron J +6000
  • Chase Greatness +6000
  • Chasing Yesterday +6000
  • Cairo Cat +6000
  • U S Navy Cross +6000
  • Kingly +6000
  • Poppy’s Destiny +6000
  • Preamble +6000
  • Somelikeithotbrown +6500
  • Kentucky Wildcat +6500
  • Gray Attempt +6600
  • Sueno +6600
  • So Alive +6600
  • King For A Day +7000
  • Frolic More +7500
  • Moretti +7500
  • Classy John +7500
  • Lexitonian +7500
  • Fortin Hill +7500
  • Quick Entry +7500
  • Lucks Royal Flush +7500
  • Mr Money +7500
  • Manny Wah +7500
  • Call Paul +7500
  • Trophy Chaser +7500
  • Rowayton +7500
  • Nitrous +7500
  • Network Effect +7500
  • Wakefield +8000
  • Tikhvin Flew +8000
  • Federal Case +8000
  • Absolutely Aiden +8000
  • Epic Dreamer +8000
  • Bano Solo +9000
  • Myhotrodlincoln +10000
  • King of Speed +10000
  • E Rated +10000
  • Empire of War +10000
  • Henley’s Joy +10000
  • Dueling +10000
  • Magic Tale +10000
  • Ahead of Plan +10000
  • Nacho Papa +10000
  • Oliver +10000
3 Mistakes 1st Time Kentucky Derby Bettors Make

2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds & Picks

The 2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic odds are out and I have a trio of the most talked about picks for the huge race. The big race is this Saturday, November 3rd at 5:44 PM ET from the famed Churchill Downs. You can watch the race on NBC and stream it via NBC Sports Live.

2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds & Picks

  • Accelerate +350
  • McKinzie +450
  • Catholic Boy +700
  • West Coast +700
  • Mind Your Biscuits +850
  • Mendelssohn +1000
  • Roaring Lion +1400
  • Yoshida +1800
  • Thunder Snow +2000
  • Collected +3300
  • Discreet Lover +3500
  • Pavel +4000
  • Gunnevera +4000
  • Bravazzo +5500
  • Seeking The Soul +5500
  • Axelrod +6600
  • Toast of New York +10000

2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic Favorite: Accelerate +350

On paper, Accelerate looks like a seriously difficult racehorse to beat. Unfortunately for Accelerate and his connections, races aren’t run on paper. Speed ratings can vary wildly from track to track, which is why handicappers shouldn’t put so much emphasis on Accelerate’s speed ratings.

Outside of the speed ratings, there are other reasons not to back the chalk. For starters, he’s never raced at Churchill Downs. Not only that he’s never won outside of California. Accelerate’s a huge play against to win the BC Classic on Saturday.

Breeders’ Cup Classic Smart Pick: West Coast +700

The horse that finished behind Accelerate has a big shot to take home the victory. After last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Gun Runner retired, West Coast became the best horse in the world.

He allowed Thunder Snow to get away with easy fractions when finishing second to that rival in the Dubai World Cup. West Coast sat on the bench for trainer Bob Baffert until doing all the early running in the Awesome Again. Even though Accelerate passed West Coast, he ran the much better race.

Baffert should have his star handicap horse ready to show his best on Nov. 3. If West Coast is at the top of his game, he’ll bury Accelerate, McKinzie, and pretty much any other horse in his way to Breeders’ Cup Classic glory.

Breeders’ Cup Longshot Pick: Roaring Lion +1400 

Sometimes, it’s as easy as going with the classiest equine in the race. Nothing says Roaring Lion should win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He’s bred to be great on turf, sired by Kitten’s Joy and from a dam, Vionnet, who had success on grass. He’s trained by one of the top turf trainers in the world, John Gosden, for a racing outfit, Qatar Racing Ltd., that’s had major success in turf races.

But, Roaring Lion’s the classiest animal in the BC Classic. He’s won 4 straight Grade 1 races. Not only that, but he’s a Keeneland September graduate, meaning he was bred in Kentucky. That means he’s an American horse returning to his home nation after dominating overseas.

Roaring Lion is my surprise longshot pick to win the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic at +1400.

2018 Belmont Betting Rankings

2018 Belmont Betting Rankings

The seventies brought us more than disco. There were three Triple Crown winners. Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), Affirmed (1978). Then we had to wait 37 years. Click here for live 2018 Belmont odds.

Now, just three years after American Pharaoh won the Triple Crown, trainer Bob Baffert is back at the Belmont with a shot at going three for three this year. Will Justify become the sport’s 13th horse to capture the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes?

What: 150th Belmont Stakes
Where: Belmont Park | Elmont, N.Y.
When: Saturday, June 9th, 2018
Post Time: 6:37 pm ET
TV Coverage: 4:00 – 7:30 pm ET
Watch: NBC
Stream: NBC Sports Live

Belmont Stakes Betting Rankings

Post positions in parentheses.

  1. (1) Justify (+100) – But for an act of god after he drew the rail I was going to bet AGAINST Justify winning the Belmont. Now with a 50% chance of rain in Elmont on race day, Justify is still the horse to beat. The two biggest wins of his career were on sloppy tracks.
    But the last horse to win the Belmont after drawing the rail was Empire Maker in 2003 in a field of six. Justify faces 9 opponents off the rail.
  2. (10) Blended Citizen (+1700) – The winner of the Peter Pan Stakes loves the Belmont track and hasn’t peaked yet this season. Blended Citizen has been a consistent closer over his ten career victories. Team Baffert will have to worry about this horse on Saturday. This horse is a legit contender to win.
  3. (4) Hofburg (+415) – This horse is the second-favorite to win the Belmont. He is fresh after skipping the Preakness and has the breeding to win the race and upset Justify. His sire – Tapit – has produced three recent winners of the Belmont.
  4. (3) Bravazo (+700) – He came in second at the Preakness and now will break from the No. 3 post position. He should be the early pace-setter, but won’t have the gas down the final stretch.
  5. (8) Vino Rosso (+850) – Trainer Todd Pletcher has won three Belmont titles since 2007. Can he win another with Vino Rosso?
    This horse has the breeding to be on your betting list for the 2018 Belmont. He is the son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin. Horses sired by Curlin can usually run all day.
    Vino Rosso finished a disappointing ninth at the Derby.
  6. (7) Tenfold (+1050) – The Steve Asmussen trained colt had a big Preakness finishing third – beaten three-quarters of a length. He is also a son of Curlin and his dam Tempress is by Tapit.
  7. (6) Gronkowski (+3000) – This horse will be overbet by post time because of his namesake and co-owner. That is the only reason Gronkowski isn’t last on this list. The horse has never run on a dirt track, never farther than a mile and never against competition remotely close to this.
  8. (2) Free Drop Billy (+6000) – He is is a son of 2012 Belmont winner Union Rags but lost by 41 lengths in the Kentucky Derby. Don’t bet on this pony.
  9. (9) Noble Indy (+2700) – Finished 17th out of 20 in the Derby at long odds. He is partially-owned by WinStar Fam – the same part owners of Justify and Repole Stable – the same owners of Vino Rosso. Both owners would have pulled the pony if he was a threat to either of their money horses.
  10. (5) Restoring Hope (+4000) – The other Baffert-trained horse is not a threat to finish in the money at the Belmont. His only win came against California-breeds and he was well-beaten by Vino Rosso in the Wood Memorial.
Odds & Picks To Win The 2018 Belmont Stakes

Odds & Picks To Win The 2018 Belmont Stakes

The final leg of the Triple Crown takes place on Saturday, June 9. The favorite, Derby and Preakness winner Justify, is at +100 on the morning line. Should you bet Justify to win the Belmont? Who are the experts picking as the smart pick? Is there a long shot in the Belmont field that can beat Justify? Click here for live Belmont Stakes odds.

What: 150th Belmont Stakes
Where: Belmont Park | Elmont, N.Y.
When: Saturday, June 9th, 2018
Post Time: 6:37 pm ET
TV Coverage: 4:00 – 7:30 pm ET
Watch: NBC
Stream: NBC Sports Live

2018 Belmont Stakes Odds & Picks

  1. Justify +100
  2. Free Drop Billy +6500
  3. Bravazo +750
  4. Hofburg +450
  5. Restoring Hope +3000
  6. Gronkowski +2500
  7. Tenfold +1000
  8. Vino Rosso +850
  9. Noble Indy +3000
  10. Blended Citizen +1750

The 5Dimes Favorite To Win The Belmont:  Justify +100

There are plenty of reasons to believe Justify becomes the thirteenth Triple Crown winner on Saturday. He’s undefeated at 5 and 0. His trainer, Bob Baffert, saddled American Pharoah to a Triple Crown sweep in 2015. He was purchased for $500,000. His sire is Scat Daddy while his mother’s sire is Ghostzapper.

Yep, there are plenty of reasons to believe Justify takes it. But, there are also reasons to believe Justify is a bad bet. His speed ratings have declined since his awesome Santa Anita Derby win. That implies that he peaked in the Santa Anita Derby. Not only that, but the Belmont will be his sixth race since Feb. 18. That’s a lot of running for a 3-year-old.   

The Smart Pick To Win The Belmont Stakes: Hofburg +450

Trained by Bill Mott, who campaigned the great Cigar in the early 1990’s, Hofburg should improve big time off his decent but unimpressive run in the Kentucky Derby. The son of Tapit had no chance after brushing at the start and steadying twice. Still, he ended up finishing seventh by 6.75 lengths. He was behind over 17 lengths at the second call. That means even though he had a brutal trip, he fought on.

Mott should have him geared up to win the Belmont Stakes. His breeding suggests the 1 ½ mile Belmont distance won’t be an issue. His dad, Tapit, sired the last two Belmont Stakes winners, Creator in 2016 and Tapwrit last year. His mom’s sire is Touch Gold. Touch Gold beat Silver Charm, a Baffert trainee racing for the Triple Crown like Justified, in 1997.     

The Longshot Belmont Stakes Pick:  Restoring Hope +3000

Most believe the other Baffert trained horse has been entered to serve as a rabbit for Justify. That’s not the case. Baffert gets all of his horses ready to win, not serve as rabbits. That’s especially true for Restoring Hope whose owners Gary and Mary West have been Bob Baffert clients for years.

Why is Restoring Hope entered if not to be Justify’s rabbit? First, he’s been working better than any horse in the Belmont Stakes field. Second, his sire, Giant’s Causeway, is one of the top sires on the planet. Also, his mom was sired by Tapit. Beware the other Baffert on Saturday.

Belmont Stakes Odds, Schedule & How To Watch

Nine 2018 Belmont Stakes Betting Trends

The 150th running of the Belmont Stakes runs on Saturday, June 9th, 2018. Can the heavy favorite Justify become racing’s 13th Triple Crown by winning in Elmont? The Triple Crown hopeful is on track to face up to 10 opponents in the $1.5 million race. Can previous Belmont betting trends help predict the 2018 winner?

2018 Belmont Stakes Odds

  1. Justify +100
  2. Free Drop Billy +5000
  3. Bravazo +750
  4. Hofburg +425
  5. Restoring Hope +4000
  6. Gronkowski +3000
  7. Tenfold +1100
  8. Vino Rosso +850
  9. Noble Indy +3000
  10. Blended Citizen +1500

What: 150th Belmont Stakes
Where: Belmont Park | Elmont, N.Y.
When: Saturday, June 9th, 2018
Post Time: 6:37 pm ET
TV Coverage: 4:00 – 7:30 pm ET
Watch: NBC
Stream: NBC Sports Live

2018 Belmont Stakes Betting Trends

  1. This will be the 150th running of the Belmont Stakes. Inaugurated in 1867, it is the oldest of the three Triple Crown races. The Kentucky Derby debuted in 1875 and the first Preakness ran in 1873.
  2. The biggest Belmont Stakes longshot winner paid out 70-1 when Sarava won in 2002.
  3. Through 149 runnings of the Belmont Stakes, the odds-on betting favorite has won 62 times or 41.6%. But only two of the last 15 Belmont Stakes favorites have won: American Pharoah (2015) and Afleet Alex (2005).
  4. Tapit sired horses have won three of the last four Belmont Stakes races: Tapwrit (2017), Creator (2016), and Tonalist (2014). Tapit’s son Hofburg is the second favorite to win the 2018 Belmont Stakes.
  5. The 12 Triple Crown winners before American Pharoah defeated seven opponents in 2015 faced an average of 4.6 other horses in their Belmont Stakes wins. In the last 15 years, the average field of 10.4 runners has competed in the Belmont. Justify is on track to face 10 opponents in 2018.
  6. Justify’s Belmont jockey Mike Smith has won the Belmont twice in the last eight runnings: atop Drosselmeyer in 2010 and aboard Palace Malice in 2013.
  7. Just like Justify, in 2008 Big Brown came into the Belmont Stakes as the favorite and undefeated in just five career races. Big Brown pulled up in that race.
  8. Two of the largest margins of Belmont Stakes victories were by Triple Crown winners. Secretariat won by 31 lengths in 1973 and Count Fleet won by 25 lengths 30 years prior.
  9. 23 out of 35 horses have lost the Belmont Stakes after winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. There have been 12 winners and three horses who skipped the Belmont.
Belmont Stakes Exotic Betting Picks

2018 Belmont Stakes Exotic Betting Choices

Tapit, North America’s top sire, has produced the last two Belmont Stakes winners. Only one horse likely to enter into this year’s Belmont Stakes is a Tapit sired colt. That colt, Hofburg, is my key horse in all my Belmont Stakes exotic wagers.

Belmont Stakes Exotic Betting Picks

What: 150th Belmont Stakes
Where: Belmont Park | Elmont, N.Y.
When: Saturday, June 9th, 2018
Post Time: 6:37 pm ET
TV Coverage: 4:00 – 7:30 pm ET
Watch: NBC
Stream: NBC Sports Live

There are several ways to cash in big when betting on the 2018 Belmont Stakes. Exotic horse racing bets offer the biggest payouts. I am going to walk horse betting beginners through my 2018 Belmont Stakes exotic betting picks.

  • Exacta – Pick the first and second place finishers in the correct order
  • Trifecta – Pick the first, second, and third place finishers in the correct order
  • Superfecta – Pick the first, second, third, and fourth place finishers in the correct order

For my exotic Belmont Stakes bet, I am picking Hofburg to upset Justify. I don’t see another horse beating either one of those. I’ll play Hofburg over Justify in a big exacta. I’ll reverse for less.

  • $12 exacta Hofburg w/Justify = $12
  • $6 exacta Justify w/Hofburg = $6

Just in case Justify doesn’t fire, I’ll play a $2 exacta with Hofburg over Bravazo, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, and Blended Citizen.

  • $2 exacta Hofburg w/Bravazo, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Blended Citizen = $8

I’ll go ahead and reverse my longshot exacta for $1.

  • $1 exacta Bravazo, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Blended Citizen w/Hofburg = $4

For my trifecta, Hofburg with Justify with All sounds like the best wager to make. Supposedly, 15 horses will enter the Belmont Stakes starting gate. I’ll go ahead and play a $2 trifecta because I believe Hofburg and Justify finish first and second.

If all 15 enter, my trifecta ticket will look like this:

  • $2 trifecta Hofburg w/Justify w/All = $26

I also want to play a trifecta with Justify on top of Hofburg with All. I’ll only play that for $1.

  • $1 trifecta Justify w/Hofburg w/All = $13

The final trifecta I’m playing will be Hofburg with Bravazo, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Blended Citizen. I’ll add those 4 horses and Justify in the show slot.

  • $1 trifecta Hofburg w/Bravazo, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Blended Citizen w/Bravazo, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Blended Citizen, Justify = $16

I’m playing a single superfecta ticket for $1. I’m going Hofburg with Justify with Bravazo, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Blended Citizen with Bravazo, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Blended Citizen, Bandua, Restoring Hope, Free Drop Billy.

My superfecta ticket will look like this:

  • $1 superfecta ticket Hofburg w/Justify w/Bravazo, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Blended Citizen w/Bravazo, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Blended Citizen, Bandua, Restoring Hope, Free Drop Billy = $24

2018 Belmont Stakes Odds

  • Justify +102
  • Hofburg +450
  • Bravazo +700
  • Tenfold +700
  • Vino Rosso +900
  • Blended Citizen +1400
  • Noble Indy +3300
  • Gronkowski +3300
  • Badua +3300
  • Free Drop Billy +4500
  • Firenze Fire +5000
  • Restoring Hope +6000
2018 Belmont Stakes Odds & Picks

2018 Belmont Stakes Odds & Picks

The third leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown takes place Saturday, June 9 at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. This will be the 150th running of this historic race. And a win by Justify at the 2018 Belmont Stakes will make it a memorable run. Click here for live Belmont Stakes odds.

What: 150th Belmont Stakes
Where: Belmont Park | Elmont, N.Y.
When: Saturday, June 9th, 2018
Post Time: 6:37 pm ET
TV Coverage: 4:00 – 7:30 pm ET
Watch: NBC
Stream: NBC Sports Live

Horse racing fans from around the world will be betting if Justify can beat the field to collect the third and final jewel of the Triple Crown. The two-year old is listed at +110 to do just that.

2018 Belmont Stakes Odds & Picks

  • Justify +110
  • Hofburg +450
  • Bravazo +800
  • Tenfold +1200
  • Vino Rosso +1200
  • Blended Citizen +1600
  • Free Drop Billy +3300
  • Noble Indy +3300
  • Badua +3300
  • Gronkowski +4000
  • Solomini +5000
  • Restoring Hope +5000
  • Enticed +5000
  • Firenze Fire +5000
  • Just Whistle +6000

Belmont Stakes Betting Favorite – Justify +110

Justify is everyone’s favorite to win the 2018 Belmont Stakes and for good reason.

“Right now, everything seems that it’s going smoothly,” said trainer Bob Baffert earlier this week. “Flesh-wise, he looks great. I’m very happy with the way he’s going.”

“We don’t train scared,” Baffert continued. “He has to go a mile and a half, and I want to make sure when I throw (jockey) Mike Smith on his back that he has a full tank of gas and his horse is ready. If he’s not ready, it doesn’t matter what Mike does.”

Belmont Stakes Smart Pick – Hofburg +450

The Preakness run took a lot out of Justify. He was a late starter in that race. That gives Belmont Stakes new second-favorite Hofburg a shot at spoiling a Triple Crown year after Audible was pulled from the race a few days ago.

Hofburg was a wise pick in the 2018 Derby, finishing a disappointing seventh, 8¾ lengths behind winner Justify. That led to trainer Billy Mott holding Hofburg out of the Preakness to focus on the Belmont.

"I’m pleased with what I’m seeing. He came out of the Derby in good order. We gave him an easy week after the Derby and after two weeks, we gave him his first work and today he had his second one," Mott said. "He’ll have another one next weekend and then go on down to Belmont and get familiar with his surroundings."

Hofburg has the edge in distance and is trained by a New Yorker. Mott will have this horse ready for a stakes race in his home-state. The trainer has one Belmont Stakes win with Drosselmeyer in 2010.

Open 5Dimes Account Now | View Live Odds Now

Belmont Stakes Long Shot Pick – Gronkowski +4000

Gronkowski is the epitome of a long shot bet. The three-year-old colt will be making his US debut after teasing us at the Kentucky Derby. He was the highest point earner in the European Road to the Kentucky Derby series. He missed that race because of slight infection and was transferred to new trainer Chad Brown who announced that Gronkowski came to him in “outstanding condition.”

The horse is named for New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski and has four wins in six starts in Britain, including England’s Burradon Stakes. The original Gronk bought a stake in his namesake earlier this year.

2018 Preakness Exotic Betting Picks

2018 Preakness Exotic Betting Picks

Learn how to make winning 2018 Preakness exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets.

There are plenty of ways to bet the Preakness Stakes. And with the 2018 field of eight features two considerable favorites and a competitive mix of Kentucky Derby runners and fresh faces.

What: 143rd Preakness Stakes
Where: Pimlico Race Course | Baltimore, MD
When: Saturday, May 19th, 2018
Post Time: 6:20 p.m. ET
TV Coverage: 5-7:15 p.m. ET
Watch: NBC
Stream: NBC Sports Live

2018 Preakness Exotic Betting Picks

With a short field and two HEAVY favorites, Kentucky Derby winner Justify and runner-up Good Magic, you will have to get creative to cash in big on your 2018 Preakness picks. I am here to help you pick the right couple of horses to use in your Preakness exotic bets.

5Dimes’ Exacta Odds

  • Justify, Quip +967
  • Justify, Lone Sailor +1300
  • Justify, Sporting Chance +1478
  • Justify, Diamond King +1380
  • Justify, Good Magic +142
  • Justify, Tenfold +1600
  • Justify, Bravazo +1380
  • Good Magic, Quip +5700
  • Good Magic, Lone Sailor +8000
  • Good Magic, Sporting Chance +10500
  • Good Magic, Diamond King +8900
  • Good Magic, Tenfold 11700
  • Good Magic, Justify +429
  • Good Magic, Bravazo +8900

Now on to my 2018 Preakness Exotic betting picks!

Almost everyone will key all their exotic bets around Justify. Because of that, I’m going to bet against Justify in all my 2018 Preakness Stakes exotic betting picks.

I’m am picking the second Preakness favorite and Kentucky derby runner-up Good Magic as my key horse. I’ll play a $30 exacta with Good Magic over Justify. There’s no reason to reverse it. Yep, Justify should beat Good Magic. But, the majority of the public will bet the Justify/Good Magic exacta. A high percentage of smart bettors are going to bet Good Magic over Justify.

It is a smart play to bet smaller exactas with Good Magic over a couple of other horses. I recommend Quip and Tenfold. Quip could be sitting on a monster race. He’s a talented horse. Tenfold has a lot of upside. His fifth place finish in the Arkansas Derby wasn’t as bad as so many believe it was. Those exactas I’ll reverse for less

My trifecta ticket will key Good Magic in the top slot, Quip, Tenfold, and Diamond King in the place slot with Justify in the third slot. Diamond King could get place money if, which I hope, Justify is too tired to run better than third.

The final wager that I’m placing is a $1 superfecta. Again, I’m going to key Good Magic in the top slot and Justify in the third slot. I’m also putting Quip, Tenfold, and Diamond King in the place slot. I’m going All in the fourth slot.

It’s obvious that my strategy is to go against the 1/2 chalk, Justify. If Justify doesn’t show up, I could make out like a bandit. If Justify beats me, oh well. That’s horse racing!