Analyzing the early odds for the divisional round of the 2019 NFL playoffs
Wild Card Weekend lived up to its name. Three of the four games could have gone either way until the last seconds. Will the Divisional Round be just as exciting? Oddsmakers aren’t biting because three of the four teams that won in the first round of the playoffs were wild cards. Click here for live NFL playoff odds.
2019 NFL Playoffs Odds, Lines & ATS Analysis
Colts at Chiefs -6, O/U 56½
Sat. Jan. 12, 4:35 PM ET
NBC Sports Live
Luck versus Mahomes. The comeback kid versus the young phenom. The bad news for the Indianapolis Colts, AFC’s 6th seed, is that the past five No. 1 seeds in the AFC have gone on to the Super Bowl. The Colts’ 11th-ranked defense (339 ypg) will have to go up against the league’s top scoring (35 ppg) and yardage (425 ypg) offense.
The Kansas City Chiefs started the 2018 campaign strong but closed the season 1-4 against the spread in their final five home games of the season. KC’s offense hasn’t been as explosive since the Karren Hunt fiasco. But the combo of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill is the deadliest in the league. The rushing duties will be split between Spencer Ware and Damien Williams.
Indy’s defense is riding high after shutting down Deshaun Watson and the Texans in Houston. The offense put up 422 yards against JJ Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, and company. That’s no small thanks to the Colts O-Line that has kept Andrew Luck safe all season allowing an NFL low 18 sacks all season.
Now is the time to bet on the Colts, I don’t see the spread getting any higher than 6 or 6.5.
Cowboys at Rams -7½, O/U 49½
Sat., Jan. 12, 8:15 PM ET
Fox Sports Go
Who else is confused at a 7.5-point spread in a divisional-round game? Yes, the Rams are a high-scoring team with a stout defense, but they limped into the playoffs with Jared Goff struggling and a banged up Todd Gurley. They lost to the Bears in Chicago on Sunday night in Week 14 and then to the Eagles at home the next Sunday night.
The Dallas Cowboys are coming off of two big wins are taking momentum into the NFC Divisional tilt. How do the Cowboys offensive trio of Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliot, and Amari Cooper stack up against Goff, Gurley, Robert Woods, and Brandin Cooks? We find out on Saturday. Both teams have the ability to dominate defensively, but who else thinks the total of 49.5 might be obliterated by the third quarter?
Chargers at Patriots -4½, O/U 47½
Sun., Jan. 13, 1:05 PM ET
Is anyone else surprised that the New England Patriots are just 4.5-point favorites at home after a week off against a West Coast team that is traveling East for the third straight week?
Tom Brady has struggled all season. Gronk is a shell of his former self. Josh Gordon is dealing with personal issues. Julian Edelman and rookie rusher Sony Michel have carried the team most of the season. Brady has done more with less in the past.
Since 2001 the Patriots have hosted a divisional round game 12 times! Guess how many times New England was favored by less than a TD? In 2005 the Pats were favored by 4.5-points over Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Moreover, New England has failed to cover the betting spread in the Divisional Round just once when they beat the Ravens by four points (35-31) after the 2014 season. Plus New England has won seven straight divisional games at home.
The Los Angeles Chargers are the hottest team on the planet right. No one saw the Bolts beating rookie sensation Lamar Jackson and the daunting Ravens defense. How did they do it? Swapping out their slower linebackers for their speedy defensive backs who could close on the opposing rusher quicker. That was the most surprising coaching performance I have seen in years. Can Anthony Lynn pull something out of his bag of tricks to confound Bill Belichick and Tom Brady?
Eagles at Saints (-9), O/U 50½
Sun. Jan. 13, 4:40 PM ET
Fox Sports Go
The New Orleans Saints opened as 10.5-point favorites. The spread was quickly bet down to 8.5 and has normalized, at least for now, at 9-points. While this is the largest NFL betting spread in the playoffs so far this season, it is not surprising. Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, and Michael Thomas play at another level at home. New Orleans is 2-0 ATS as a touchdown or more favorite in home playoff games since 2001. However, the Saints are 0-3 ATS in that same span as a favorite of less than a touchdown.
Coming to town are the underdog Philadelphia Eagles led by Super Bowl 52 MVP Nick Foles who is back under center. You would be crazy to bet against Foles who is now 9-0 in games played in December, January, and February.