NFL Quarterback Betting Analytics

NFL Quarterback Betting Analytics

If you need an edge on your 2018 NFL betting strategy, use my NFL quarterback betting analytics to gain an advantage. Every current NFL starting QB will be ranked based on how well and often they pay out against the NFL betting spread.

NFL QB Betting Analytics Entering The 2018 Season

Must Bet Elite ATS NFL QBs:

Tom Brady, New England Patriots, 150-95-6 ATS record

The 🐐 covers the betting spread 59.8% of the time. You might be thinking that the Pats are almost always favorites when Tom Brady starts. Think again, Brady is far more deadly in the rare occasions when the Patriots are underdogs. Brady and company are 33-13-1 ATS in 47 games as an underdog. That is the best record of any current quarterback with at least 16 NFL starts.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (41-28-1 ATS, 58.6 percent)

Andrew Luck hasn’t played ball in over a season. But when he plays healthy don’t bet against this franchise QB. The NFL betting spread analytics shows how valuable Luck is to the Colts. When he starts, Indianapolis covers nearly 60% of NFL betting spreads. Without Luck, the Colts are a measly 16-15-1 ATS. Luck is coming back from a shoulder injury and has been fully cleared for training camp.

Alex Smith, Washington Redskins (85-64-1 ATS, 56.3 percent)

Former top-pick in the 2005 NFL draft, Alex Smith has been labeled a game manager. Why? Because Aaron Rodgers was selected 25 picks later.

Playing in San Francisco and Kanas City, Smith has won games, covered NFL betting spreads and then been shipped off. He has a winning NFL ATS betting record in every possible situation. At home, on the road, as a favorite and as an underdog. Even though he has never had to win a game with just his arm alone, his 56.3% spread betting cover rate ranks 12th all-time in the Super Bowl era. That is only one spot behind the great Joe Theismann.

Bet These QBs ATS When They Don’t Face A Must Bet QB:

  • Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (61-44-4 ATS, 56.0 percent)
  • Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (79-61-2 ATS, 55.6 percent)
  • Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (53-41-2 ATS, 55.2 percent)

Dalton, Rogers, and Wilson will win against the NFL betting spread over 55% of the time. Talk to your financial advisor and he will tell you that’s a number you can take to the bank!

Bet These Quarterbacks ATS When The Betting Spread Is Right:

Newton, Ryan & Brees have all played in Super Bowl games with only Brees winning.

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (59-47-2 ATS, 54.6 percent)

Newton has never had a top-tier receiver. Last season the Panthers drafted dynamic pass-catching rusher Christian McCaffrey to help the offense. Joining Newton and McCaffrey on offense this season is rookie WR DJ Moore out of Maryland. Moore isn’t built like a prototypical downfield pass catcher. At 6′ 0" and 210 pounds but he plays large. He will fight for every catch and has been likened to a more refined version of DeAndre Hopkins. That style should suit a strong-armed risk-taker like Cam Newton.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (85-71-2 ATS, 53.8 percent)

Ryan was the 2016 MVP and is now the league’s highest-paid player after signing a five-year, $150 million extension that included $100 million guaranteed. Expect Ryan to take all the snaps, just like he did last season. Ryan is 33 years old has shown excellent durability, having not missed a game since turf toe sidelined him during the 2009 season. Ryan’s top target, Julio Jones, has declined to report to camp due to a contract issue.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (133-108-7 ATS, 53.6 percent)

Drew Brees is an elite QB based on his stats alone. But teams that put up a lot of points quickly need a defense that can slow down opposing offenses. The Saints were missing that until last season when their 2017 draft class blew the roof off of the Superdome. I expect Brees and company to cover more spreads this season than ever before.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (30-27-0 ATS, 52.6 percent)

Cousins, now with the Vikings, was on a subpar Washington team that lacked talent and depth. In the offseason he signed a massive deal in Minnisota. At training camp, Cousins will have had about 3½ months to learn the Vikings’ playbook. That might slow him down early, but Minnesota is loaded with talent and depth at every skill position.

Hit & Miss ATS Quarterbacks:

  • Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (103-92-3 ATS, 52.0 percent)
  • Eli Manning, New York Giants (110-102-2 ATS, 51.4 percent)
  • Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (31-30-0 ATS, 50.8 percent)

Why is Big Ben listed as a hit or miss ATS quarterback? His style of play. He will hold the ball longer than the average QB because of how big he is and how far he can throw the ball. That means sacks and turnovers which limit ball possession and fewer scoring drives.

Flip A Coin To Bet On Or Against These Quarterbacks:

  • Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (31-29-2 ATS, 50 percent)
  • Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers (96-93-3 ATS, 50 percent)
  • Sam Bradford, Arizona Cardinals (40-40-0 ATS, 50 percent)
  • Tyrod Taylor, Cleveland Browns (21-19-2 ATS, 50 percent)

Are You Crazy Betting On?

  • Josh McCown, New York Jets (36-35-2 ATS, 49.3 percent)
  • Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (74-76-4 ATS, 48.1 percent)
  • Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (20-21-1 ATS, 47.6 percent)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (56-61-2 ATS, 47.1 percent)

Money To Burn Quarterback Picks

Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (36-40-1 ATS, 46.8 percent)

The Ryan Tannehill led Dolphins are 12-20 ATS as a favorite. That’s the worst NFL ATS betting record of any current QB.

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20-24-1 ATS, 44.4 percent)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been favored just 12 times when Jameis Winston starts. The Bucs are 3-9 ATS in those games. That makes Winston’s ATS betting record the worst in the league as a favorite of any starting QB.

Winston was suspended for the first three games of the regular season for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. The Bucs will play at New Orleans and at home against the Eagles and Steelers with backup Ryan Fitzpatrick starting. The Bucs almost certainly will be underdogs in those three games, and Fitzpatrick is 30-41-2 ATS as an underdog.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (53-66-6 ATS, 42.4 percent)

Matthew Stafford is in rarified company joining six other QBs with at least 40 starts that have a losing ATS record. Stafford is a horrible ATS pick to win even especially as an underdog. The Lions are 23-35-2 ATS as an underdog with Stafford starting. That is the worst NFL ATS betting record of any current QB.

QBs With Not Enough Starts To Use Betting Analytics To Make Your ATS Picks:

  • Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (1-0-0 ATS, 100 percent)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers (6-1-0 ATS, 85.7 percent)
  • Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans (5-1-0 ATS, 83.3 percent)
  • Teddy Bridgewater, New York Jets (22-6-0 ATS, 78.6 percent)
  • AJ McCarron, Buffalo Bills (2-1-0 ATS, 66.7 percent)
  • Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (18-11-0 ATS, 62.1 percent)
  • Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (18-12-2 ATS, 56.3 percent)
  • Case Keenum, Denver Broncos (21-13-4 ATS, 55.3 percent)
  • Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears (6-4-2 ATS, 50 percent)
  • Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles (16-22-1 ATS, 41.0 percent)
  • Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (9-13-0 ATS, 40.9 percent)