The 2017 Breeders’ Cup is this Friday, Nov. 3 and this Saturday, Nov. 4 live at the historic Del Mar track in California. The ML odds are out and if you need an edge with your Breeders’ Cup picks then keep reading for my analysis and my personal picks for the races I like.
2017 Breeders’ Cup Race Betting Cheat Sheet
Friday, Nov. 3
Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Chad Brown has a strong hand in this race. The horse I like is Significant Form. Why? I can’t look past the 8/1 morning line odds. I think Happily sneaks in there for second place while Todd Pletcher’s Orbolution is a must use at 20/1.
Win: 8-Significant Form
Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
Sharp Azteca is one of my best bets this Breeders’ Cup. I know that Mor Spirit put a beat down on Sharp Azteca by 6 lengths in the Metropolitan Handicap. I believe Azteca holds off Spirit on Friday. For third, I like Accelerate.
Win: 3-Sharp Azteca
Place: 6-Mor Spirit
Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
The key to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf is to not take short odds on any horse. With that being written my top choice is going to be Aidan O’Brien trained Mendelssohn. He’s 8 to 1 on the morning line. He also gets the rail. I think James Garfield has a shot with Frankie Dettori on board. Hemp Hemp Hurray could improve enough to win this.
Win: 1-Mendelssohn 8/1
Place: 7-James Garfield 6/1
Show: 12-Hemp Hemp Hurray
Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Distaff
With Vale Dori skipping the race, I believe Paradise Woods can take this gate-to-wire. I just checked again. It sure looks like Papa Mandella’s charge gets an easy lead in this. Elate has never raced in California. I still think she runs well. Baffert’s got a contender in Abel Tasman.
Win: 7-Paradise Woods 9/2
Place: 5-Elate 3/1
Show: 4-Abel Tasman 4/1
Saturday, Nov. 4
Race 4 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
Moonshine Memories, the morning line chalk, beat Alluring Star by 2.75 lengths in the Chandelier Stakes. That was Alluring Star’s second lifetime race. The Bob Baffert trainee ran a half-mile in :46.3. I think she’s long gone on Saturday. Princess Warrior had no shot versus Heavenly Love in the Alcibades. She’s the only 2-year-old filly that made up ground. Heavenly Love gets the rail. That means she can save ground until the real running starts.
Win: 9-Alluring Star
Place: 3-Princess Warrior
Show: 1-Heavenly Love
Race 5 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
The BC Turf Sprint is setting up as a match race between summer’s en fuego turf horse, Disco Partner, and super classy Lady Aurelia, right? Not really. Marsha is offering 7/2 odds. She beat Lady Aurelia at York in August. Lady Aurelia is the classiest horse in the race. She shouldn’t finish worse than second. Bucchero could be right there at 5 furlongs. He should get the lead.
Place: 3-Lady Aurelia
Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
9 to 5 favorite Unique Bella should be tough to beat in the BC Filly and Mare Sprint. I can’t put her on top at 9 to 5. I’m going with 12/1 longshot By the Moon. If the pace is swift, and it should be, By the Moon can win this. Unique Bella runs second while Finley’sluckycharm takes home the show money.
Win: 7-By the Moon
Place: 11-Unique Bella
Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf
There are a couple of races that I circle every Breeders’ Cup. The 2017 BC Filly & Mare Turf is one of them. Rhododendron breaks from post-position 14. That won’t matter because this race is 1 ¼ miles. I think she offers great value at 8/1. Birdie Gold is at 30 to 1. Don’t sleep on the daughter of Birdstone. She might be good enough to win this. Lady Eli, who figures to go off at no less than 8/5 on race day, should get up for third.
Place: 3-Birdie Gold
Show: 9-Lady Eli
Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Sprint
There’s a horse that I love in the BC Sprint. Imperial Hint can either take the lead or lie right off. Either way, the winner of 8 out of 12 from Gulfstream Park should take down defending champion Drefong. Drefong finishes second, though, because Roy H lies too far off the pace on Saturday. Roy H? I’m penciling him for third.
Win: 10-Imperial Hint
Show: 8-Roy H
Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Mile
Here’s another race where I’ve got a strong opinion. Ribchester, who just ran on Oct. 21, is the horse to beat. He breaks from a disadvantageous post, post-10, and that is a concern. But, there’s no horse in here that touches him on class. I’ll go with Ballagh Rocks for second. There’s a ton of speed signed on, which means his closing kick could be the difference. For third, I’ll put up Seudois. He impressed me when accelerating in the stretch to win the Shadwell Turf Mile.
Place: 11-Ballagh Rocks
Race 10 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
One of my rules is to never bet on the chalk in a Breeders’ Cup race. Yeah. I must break that rule on Saturday because I don’t see any horse in the Juvenile taking down 9/5 Bolt D’Oro. He’s as special of a two-year-old as I’ve ever seen. Solomini could improve enough for Bob Baffert to take second. Third is a toss-up. I’ll give it to Good Magic. The son of Curlin was purchased for $1,000,000. He’s also trained by Chad Brown, last year’s Eclipse Award winning trainer.
Win: 11-Bolt D’Oro
Show: 6-Good Magic
Race 11 – Breeders’ Cup Turf
The 2017 Breeders’ Cup Turf is deep. My win money is going on 15 to 1 morning line shot Bullard’s Alley. He freaked in the Grade 1 Canadian International at Woodbine. I think he freaks again. Javier Castellano gives me even more confidence. Fanciful Angel has finished behind Beach Patrol in his last 2. He finishes ahead of Beach Patrol on Saturday. Decorated Knight could blow up the exotics. Like Bullard’s Alley, he’s at 15 to 1.
Win: 2-Bullard’s Alley
Place: 10-Fanciful Angel
Show: 4-Decorated Knight
Race 12 – Breeders’ Cup Classic
Bob Baffert trains 4 of the 10 horses signed on for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. As crazy as it sounds, I believe 3 of his horses finish first, second, and third. Who do I like of Bob’s quatro to win the BC Classic? I believe the race sets up perfectly for three-year-old Travers winner West Coast. He should get a dream trip behind dueling front runners Collected and Gun Runner. I think Collected hangs on for second while Arrogate runs on for third.
Win: 8-West Coast