The Kentucky Derby takes place this Saturday, May 5. While all eyes will be on Race 12, I am giving you my a closer look at a how to bet seven Churchill Downs races on Kentuky Derby day including the main event.
Will there be a Triple Crown winner in 2018?
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2018 Kentucky Derby Betting Cheat Sheet
Race 6 – Grade 1 Humana Distaff
The chalk, Lewis Bay, finished third by a head in the Humana Distaff in his last. Finley’sluckycharm, who’s also one of the chalks, beat Lewis Bay. American Gal is the other 7/2 choice. Why not go against all of them? I think California invader Skye Diamonds has a huge shot at 5/1.
Race 7 – Grade 1 Distaff Turf Mile Stakes
This is about as wide-open as any race on Saturday’s Churchill Downs’ card. That includes being as wide-open as the Kentucky Derby. In a wide-open race, it makes sense to back a horse offering great odds that fits the profile of the race. That’s Res Ipsa. She’s 10/1 on the morning line. Great turf rider Julien Leparoux takes the call. She’s also 2-1-2 from 9 races going a mile on the turf. Finally, she has 2 wins from 4 starts over Churchill’s turf track.
Race 8 – Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes
It’s going to be hard to beat the 9/5 morning line chalk, Imperial Hint. I’m going to try and do it, though. Limousine Liberal is 4/1 on the morning line. He’s a 7-furlong specialist with a 3-2-1 record from 8 starts. He’s also 5 wins from 7 starts over the Churchill Downs’ dirt.
Race 9 – Grade 2 American Turf Stakes
Rushing Fall should go off much lower than his 5/1 morning line odds because he’s trained by Chad Brown and is undefeated. I like the Aidan O’Brien trained Threeandfourpence. Jockey Ryan Moore and O’Brien could start a possibly massive day when Threeandfourpence takes the American Turf Stakes on May 5.
Race 10 – Grade 3 Pat Day Mile
If Mask goes off at 4/1, he’ll be the biggest overlay on the Derby Card. That’s how much better he is than his competition in the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile. Trained by Chad Brown, Mask was a 20/1 shot to win the Derby after his second-lifetime race. He’s that well-regarded.
Race 11 – Grade 1 Old Forrester Turf Classic
Tough to go chalky in any race on Derby Day, but it’s tough to look past the Chad Brown-trained Beach Patrol. Beach Patrol should take the lead, or run right off, and hold off the closers. Deauville, trained by Aidan O’Brien, has a good shot.
Race 12 – Grade 1 Kentucky Derby
The big race is a no-brainer to me. Mendelssohn is much better than his competition. That means he should win going away. However, I predict his odds land around 3/1. That makes him a play against with my win money. Who do I think upsets Mendelssohn? Why not Audible? Todd Pletcher trains and the Florida Derby winner has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby two years running.