The 2018 Kentucky Derby field is set. The Bob Baffert trained Justify has been installed as early favorite. Is Justify a good bet as the race favorite? Or, will some other horse throw a horseshoe into Justify’s chances of winning the Kentucky Derby? Is there a smarter 2018 Kentucky Derby bet? Who is the long shot pick to win?
2018 Kentucky Derby
144th Running of the Roses
Saturday, May 5th, 2018
Post Time: 6:34 PM ET
TV Coverage: 2:30-7:20 PM ET
Stream: NBC Sports Live
2018 Kentucky Derby Odds & Picks
- Firenze Fire +7500
- Free Drop Billy +3500
- Promises Fulfilled +5500
- Flameaway +4000
- Audible +700
- Good Magic +900
- Justify +360
- Lone Sailor +5000
- Hofburg +1450
- My Boy Jack +2800
- Bolt d’Oro +800
- Enticed +2500
- Bravazo +6000
- Mendelssohn +500
- Instilled Regard +5000
- Magnum Moon +750
- Solomini +2500
- Vino Rosso +1300
- Noble Indy +3000
- Combatant +6000
The 2018 5Dimes Favorite To Win The Kentucky Derby: Justify +360
The Bob Baffert trainee has every right to win by open lengths on May 5. He’s from Scat Daddy and a Ghostzapper mare. Scat Daddy has turned into a seriously talented sire while Ghostzapper was one of the fastest horses in the past 50 years.
Justify is lightly raced. That can work for, or against him. He’s got upside. But, he runs in the most difficult race of his life in only his fourth lifetime race. He didn’t run as a 2-year-old. Another sign that says he’s not ready for this, is if he’s such an awesome horse, why did Baffert wait until 2018 to race him?
Lots of questions surrounding the race favorite.
The Smart Pick To Win The 2018 Kentucky Derby: Audible +700
At +700, Audible is an overlay. He could go off closer to +1000 once chalk bettors pound Justify. All Audible has done is win his last 3 races, improve with every start, and win one race near the lead and the other closing from far back.
His tractability could be the key on the First Saturday in May. The Derby field will have 20 racehorses. Audible should get position with ease. If he gets shuffled back, the horse won’t panic. Instead, he’ll allow jockey Javier Castellano to weave him through traffic. I believe he’s a great bet at +700.
The Longshot Pick To Win The 2018 Kentucky Derby: Enticed +2500
What’s wrong with Enticed? He got the worst of it battling with Vino Rosso in the Wood Memorial stretch. That doesn’t bother me as much as you’d think, though. The reason is because Enticed fought just as hard. He just wasn’t comfortable on the rail.
Also, I don’t see Enticed having trouble with the distance. He’s sired by Medaglia d’Oro, just like Bolt d’Oro is. Not only that, but on his mom’s side is Mineshaft. I mean, really? He can’t get the distance?
If he had won the Wood Memorial his odds would be around +1000 to +1200. Because he finished second, his odds are +2500. Enticed can pull off the upset.