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Kentucky Derby 2018 Odds & Picks

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5Dimes’ horse racing oddsmakers have released the early 2018 Kentucky Derby betting odds. Which runner is the favorite to win the 144th Running of the Roses? Is there a smart pick to win the Kentucky Derby? Could a long shot come from behind and take the crown?

Kentucky Derby 2018 Odds & Picks

  • Justify +370
  • Mendelssohn +470
  • Magnum Moon +650
  • Audible +670
  • Bolt D’oro +750
  • Good Magic +900
  • Vino Rosso +1400
  • My Boy Jack +1500
  • Solomini +2000
  • Enticed +2150
  • Noble Indy +2250
  • Quip +3000
  • Hofburg +3000
  • Flameaway +3000
  • Free Drop Billy +3500
  • Gronkowski +4000
  • Lone Sailor +4500
  • Promises Fulfilled +5000
  • Bravazo +5000
  • Firenze Fire +5500
  • Snapper Sinclair +5750
  • Combatant +6000
  • Restoring Hope +7500
  • Reride +8500

The 5Dimes Odds-on Favorite To Win The Kentucky Derby: Justify +370 / Mendelssohn +475

No horse has won the Kentucky Derby after not racing at 2 since Apollo did it in 1882. That’s a long time. However, the last horse to come around with as much fanfare as Justify’s gotten was American Pharoah in 2015. American Pharoah won the Triple Crown. Like Justify, Bob Baffert trained him.

Justify easily beat rival Bolt d’Oro in the Santa Anita Derby. He could just be one of those great racehorses that love to run. If Justify is one of those great racehorses, no history will stop him from winning the Derby on May 5.

Even though all of that’s true, Justify is a play against.  Why? It’s impossible to take such low odds on a horse to win the Kentucky Derby. There will be full field gunning for Justify in the 2018 Derby. It’s important to look for more value.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien said that he won’t ship Mendelssohn to Churchill Downs until one or two days before the race. O’Brien does that with all of his horses. He wants his equines to keep their mind on racing. The best way to do that, O’Brien believes, is to keep them from getting too comfortable with their surroundings.

It’s a different way of thinking about it. During his illustrious career, it’s worked for Aidan O’Brien. He’s won every major stakes race in the world save for those run in the United States. Will it work on May 5? It could. Mendelssohn is definitely good enough to win the Kentucky Derby.

I don’t believe he’s +475 good enough. Mendelssohn’s odds are just too low for me to even consider betting on. Look elsewhere.

The 2018 Kentucky Derby Smart Pick: Audible +670

He’s sort of the forgotten horse. The reason is because it will have been 5 weeks between his win in the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Based on his Florida Derby win, Audible should be favored to take home the Run for the Roses.

Yes, he was that impressive. Audible is an incredibly versatile horse. He ran close to the lead when he won the Holy Bull Stakes. He ran well off the pace and won going away in the Florida Derby. Jockey John Velasquez could ride Vino Rosso in the Derby. I believe he sticks with Audible.

If he does, the same connections that won the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Always Dreaming could make it back to back with Audible. Johnny V. will have the luxury of deciding to run near the pace, or to run right off.

The Into Mischief sired colt is the smart 2018 Kentucky Derby pick.

The2018 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Pick:  Gronkowski +4000

Gronkowski is named after New England Patriots’ tight-end Rob Gronkowski. Now the famed NFL TE is a part owner of the thoroughbred. So if you want to bet on Gronkowski, now is the time befor Boston fanboys start driving the odds down.

He (the horse) received an invitation to the 2018 Kentucky Derby after winning the Burradon Stakes, a mile event, at Newcastle. Gronkowski’s odds imply he has no shot at winning the Derby on May 5.

I beg to differ. The reason Gronkowski has a shot of winning on May 5 has nothing to do with his name. His trainer, Jeremy Noseda, is one of the top thoroughbred trainers in the world. He knows what he’s doing.

Gronkowski has won 4 straight races on synthetic. But, his broodmare was sired by Preakness Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky. Gronk’s sire is Lohnro, one of the greatest racehorses to ever run in Australia.

The equine Gronk has what it takes to upset the favorites on Derby Day.